Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
