Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
