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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still